Research 

Job Market Papers:

"Politics of Non Democracies: Fraud, Post-Election Boycotts, and Protests" (with Mate Malashkhia) [R&R at APSR]

Non-democracies are often characterized by electoral manipulation and contested results. Despite a growing literature on these regimes, opposition strategies remain underexplored. To address this gap, we develop a formal model analyzing the interactions among the incumbent’s, the opposition’s, and the citizens’ decisions. We show that a boycott — forfeiting parliamentary seats — can serve as a powerful signal of the opposition’s ability, thereby mobilizing large-scale protests.  This new information explains why citizens may support the regime one day but protest the next. Thus, in contexts where the opposition faces public outreach constraints, a post-election boycott becomes one of the few available and effective strategies. Given the boycott’s significance, we explore the factors that influence this decision.

Moreover, our model offers a new perspective  on the strategic role of fraud — shaping post-election dynamics. Additionally, we argue that  peaceful transitions arise when credible threats of protests are coupled with parliamentary elections.

• Conferences: WPSA 2025, MPSA 2025, DDGS 2024, MPSA 2023.

"How does Housing Affect Integration Outcomes for Internally Displaced People?" 

In recent years, a record number of people have been forcibly displaced. This paper utilizes a natural experiment to examine a case that isolates the effect of housing in a context free from cultural confounders. I find that internally displaced people (IDPs) living in settlements primarily composed of other IDPs report a greater sense of belonging and are more likely to experience post-traumatic growth. Conversely, despite facing challenges in mixed neighborhoods, IDPs in these areas tend to rate government performance more positively and believe their needs are being met. A possible explanation is that IDPs in isolated neighborhoods are less reliant on state institutions for governance and support.

The findings highlight the crucial role that international organizations can play in shaping effective housing policies for internally displaced persons (IDPs). The lack of international protection leaves these populations vulnerable to government discretion, which may jeopardize their welfare due to electoral motivations.

• Conferences: APSA 2025 (Scheduled).

Working Papers:

"Integration and Return Intentions Among Displaced Individuals" [PDF available upon request] [Under review]

Despite structural support, integration remains challenging for most internally displaced people (IDPs). My survey shows that over 50% feel only partially integrated, and 65% report a lack of belonging. Broader integration measures similarly indicate low integration, comparable to that of refugees in the U.S. 

Interestingly, none of the integration metrics explain the desire to return, suggesting that even integrated individuals may wish to return. In fact, 90% of Georgian IDPs express a wish to return, primarily due to emotional factors, while economic reasons influence those wishing to stay.  This research adds to the literature, which often links reluctance to return to economic concerns but overlooks motivations behind the desire to return. 

Given the importance of emotional attachments, peace treaties should include chapters on allowing displaced populations to access sacred places. Additionally, the paper calls for the development of integration measures tailored specifically to the unique needs of IDPs.

"The Protest Dilemma: The Effect of Threat of War in Sustaining Non-Democratic Regimes" (with Mate Malashkhia) 

In non-democratic regimes protests serve as the primary means of voicing political discontent. While a growing literature examines protests, the role of external factors remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we develop a formal model of how the enemy’s war decision and the incumbent’s use of propaganda influence the citizens' protest decision. We show that the threat of war deters protests.  As a result, citizen mobilization hinges on the opposition being perceived as significantly more capable than the incumbent. 

We further show that when the enemy is not more likely to invade if protests are sufficiently large, an increased threat of war further demobilizes protest in the participatory equilibrium. This helps explain why regimes use propaganda to exaggerate the risk of war. However, if the enemy seeks to prevent regime change, a heightened war threat can sometimes increase protest.  Hence, propaganda is not universally effective tool for protest suppression.

• Conferences: APSA 2025 (Scheduled) and Comparative Politics and Formal Theory 2025.

"The Effect of Internal Displacement on Political Attitudes" (with Mate Malashkhia) [Junior Scholars in Quantitative Conflict Workshop]

How does war affect political attitudes? While much research on war centers on violence, the effects of displacement remain underexplored, despite over 120 million people being forcibly displaced.  This omission is significant, as displacement represents a unique form of victimization with long-lasting impacts. We address this gap by examining Georgians displaced by the 2008 Russian invasion. Using a natural experiment, we find that while displaced and non-displaced individuals demonstrate similar levels of support for Georgia joining NATO and the EU, displaced individuals are more likely to hold hawkish attitudes when questions are directed at those responsible for their displacement — in this case, Russia. However, displaced individuals, who have experienced violence, exhibit a heightened sense of solidarity with others who have endured similar hardships, namely with Ukrainians. Thus, war can have long-lasting effects on individuals, shaping their foreign policy preferences even without the  exposure to violence.

• Conferences: Junior Scholars in Quantitative Conflict Workshop.

"Gendered Dimensions of Internal Displacement" 

In a survey of IDPs in Georgia, the data reveal that women face significantly more challenges in their host environment than men. In particular, they fall behind men on the economic component of integration and they do not seem to gain economic autonomy. Furthermore, displaced women fare worse on measures of mental health. While the literature points to female success on growth after trauma, in this case, it is no more rapid than for men. Given these travails as experienced by women IDPs in their host communities, it is a surprise that they are far less willing to return to their home villages. The data offer clues for this reluctance – displaced women are more likely to believe that everything in life is determined by fate. Perhaps women feel a lack of agency, which inhibits their ability to take positive action in return to their home village. Another reason why men are significantly more willing to return might be that displacement is more traumatic for men, and dispalced men may see return as a way to restore a sense of control and dignity.

"How did the Russo-Ukraine War Affect Party Identification in the US?" (with Mate Malashkhia) 

Per the "Almond-Lippmann consensus", the public is uninformed, has incoherent opinion on foreign policy and is irrelevant to decision making. However, after addressing the endogeneity issue, we find that support for Ukraine has a strong negative effect on identifying as a Republican. Moreover, the support for Ukraine, a foreign policy issue, has a larger effect than the variables consistently found in the literature to have a large and significant effect on party identification. As for identifying as a Democrat, the results from the probit model show that when other, potentially exogenous, variables are included as controls, the support for Ukraine has a strong, significant, and positive effect. However, when we add other, possibly endogenous variables, the effect disappears.

The strong negative effect of Ukraine support on identifying as a Republican contradicts most of the existing work that foreign policy is a low salience issue.

• Conferences: APSA 2025 (Scheduled) and MPSA 2025.

Work in Progress:

"Leading to the Revolution: Signaling Dissent through Illicit Activities" (with Mate Malashkhia) [MPSA 2024]

How do revolutions happen?  We develop a theory on how citizens gauge each other's anti-regime sentiments through participation in illicit activities, such as black markets. These activities are partially observable to the government, which seeks to suppress them to reassert control. However, repression inadvertently heightens public awareness of dissent, making shared opposition more apparent.

We analyze this theory by process tracing the collapse of the USSR. Specifically, focusing on  Georgia, we show that participation in black markets and parallel, shadow institutions was widely recognized and perceived as nationalist resistance by both Moscow and Georgian citizens. As the USSR's state capacity declined, this shared understanding of dissent enabled citizens to anticipate mass participation, ultimately driving Georgia’s exit from the Soviet Union.

• Conferences: MPSA 2024.